Welcome to the BetPack Blog - BetPack - Your Local Bookmaker Online

The Ireland against Wales match at the Aviva on Sunday was undoubtedly the game of the Six Nations to date, although that doesn’t do this match justice after what Scotland and England offered up at Murrayfield on Saturday. If we get another game as dramatic over the course of the tournament we will be very lucky. It was a fiercely contested game with Wales and to a slightly lesser extent Ireland showing huge intent to play rugby, keeping ball in hand and working the phases. The lead changed hands six times and Ireland looked to have weathered the early Welsh pressure to put themselves in a match winning position not once but twice. But it was Wales who demonstrated the better composure and self belief and also the classier attacking moves, Rhys Priestland struggled with his place kicking until Lee Halfpenny took over those duties but he brought his back-line onto the ball at pace and he mixed up the point of attack continuously as his team ran in three tries. The two Irish tries came from patient phase play that stretched the Welsh defense and allowed

Warren Gatland delayed naming his team until Lunchtime Friday to keep the Irish Management guessing and despite all the talk two of their best players are in fact fit to play and Jamie Roberts and Rhys Priestland will be starting at the Aviva on Sunday. Ireland selected pretty much as predicted apart from Donnacha Ryan losing out to Donnacha O Callaghan for the starting lock spot. Keith Earls was forced to withdraw today and Fergus McFadden will take his place. Fergus is a brilliant defender and I would have no worries about his ability to step up to the plate.

I expect Ireland to win this game and I see them doing the damage initially up front. At the World Cup Wales just went around the ankles on our main

While last weekends Heineken Cup action wasn’t as exciting as the previous, Munster once again stole a game at the death through another brilliant Ronan O' Gara drop goal to get 4 vital points from their trip to the south of France. With Northampton having suffered a surprise defeat to the Scarlet’s at Franklins Gardens, the winner of this group will be determined by the home and away legs between Munster and the Welsh side in December. Castre made the strange decision to move the Munster game from their home stadium to Toulouse’s, which can hold a larger crowd. They were obviously hoping to cash in on the famous Munster travelling support with Toulouse an easier place to fly in and out of. However while there was a decent travelling support given the current economic climate and the proximity of Christmas there was only a crowd of 11,000 and the atmosphere wasn’t nearly as hostile as it would have been in Castre. Castre also made some strange selections and its questionable whether it was their first choice side out.

Munster are a team in transition and its interesting to note that of the team that started the Heineken Cup final in 2008 that Munster won only 5 started against Castre. However they are now two from two and if they can get out of their group no team will want to get them in the draw for the quarter finals. They made plenty of mistakes on Saturday but the pride passion and honesty of effort was there for all to see. They have two World Class players in Paul O’Connell and Ronan O’Gara and the process of rebuilding the team has begun with Conor Murray, Peter O Mahoney and Danny Barnes injecting youth. Niall Ronan had his best game ever in the Heineken Cup and their summer signings BJ Botha and Will Chambers have strengthened them. Chambers was only signed on a short-term deal but he looks to be very creative and could be a coup.

Leinster were very impressive at the RDS against Glasgow and had the bonus point in the bag by half time. Eoin O’ Malley showed his talent by scoring two tries and the strength in depth that Leinster have in the center position is frightening. While Glasgow took a 3 point lead with an early penalty Leinster got the first try after only 3 minutes when Isa Nacewa fielded a brilliant cross field kick from Johnny Sexton and just before he was tackled into touch he threw a

Wonderful one handed offload into Rob Kearney who touched down. While Glasgow battled hard in the second half Leinster never looked like they would be caught and they finished the game with a fifth try when replacement Isaac Boss scored at the death. The biggest positive for Leinster apart from the 5 points was the performances of official man of the match Jamie Heaslip and Luke Fitzgerald who were both superb. Leinster are now in control of the group and have a double header with Aviva Premiership side Bath to look forward to in December.

Both Connacht and Ulster failed to get anything from their matches at the weekend and I think that Ulster coach Brian McLoughlin will have more regrets than Eric Elwood. It was a special night to be in the Sportsground on Saturday where over 9000 people attended. That was a record crowd for a rugby match in the west of Ireland and they did everything in their power to lift their side. Toulouse showed Connacht real respect by selecting the side that they did and also the way they approached the game. They were so clinical and took the points that were on offer at all times whether that was through a penalty or drop goal. If Connacht were to have caused an upset they really would have needed to get a lead early and rattle Toulouse but it wasn’t to be. Entry to the Heineken Cup is brilliant for Connacht but they will need to learn fast if they are going to get some points on board.

The focus returns to the Rabo Direct Pro 12 league for all 4 Irish Provinces this weekend, which will give some fringe players a chance to stake a claim. The Irish Management will be keen to look at all the options likely to be available to them when the first National squad is announced in the New Year. I expect Glasgow to really come out full of fire against Ulster following their tepid performance against Leinster and with Ulster being forced to rest Stephen Ferris, Rory Best and Paddy Wallace the Scottish side should prevail. The Scarlets will beat the Dragons at home. Connacht will now focus on the Rabo Direct after 2 exciting weeks in Europe. Its important for them to get points at home in the Rabo Direct if they are to qualify for the Heineken Cup next year. The Ospreys are a good side and it will be difficult for Eric Elwoods team to get the win. Leinster travel to Treviso and they should have too much talent for the Italians who are always tough at Home. I expect Munster to beat Edinburgh at Thomondpark although Michael Bradleys side will be confident after their great comeback against Racing Metro last weekend

If we ever doubted about the quality and drama that the Heineken Cup provides us year on year well then last weekends first round of pool games demonstrated that it is a better competition to watch than the Rugby World cup or the Six nations. In the Heineken Cup nearly every game is ultra competitive and its worth noting that no team won a 4 try bonus point this weekend which shows that even the pundits expected whipping boys (the Italian Sides) have closed the gap on the frontrunners.

For the Irish provinces it was a very positive weekend as a far as I am concerned. It started with Connacht travelling to London to play Harlequins on Friday night where some bookmakers were giving Connacht a 24-point start! They underestimated how hard Connacht have worked to get to the Heineken Cup having spent 15 seasons underneath the radar in the Challenge Cup. This Connacht side are a dogged determined bunch and they outscored their hosts by 2 tries to one but conceded too many penalties and with Quins having a kicker of the quality and accuracy of ex All Black Nick Evans that was always going to be costly. Their performance will have made Toulouse and Gloucester who share their group sit up and take notice and the 10 points that they may have expected to gain from the home and away fixtures wont look as likely now. This weekend Connacht face the ultimate test when the Top French team Toulouse travel to the Sportsground. It promises to be a special night in Galway and it’s a real opportunity for Connacht to build a fan base that will secure their future financially long term. Toulouse weren’t impressive in their defeat of Gloucester in France Sunday and that will make them more focused. If Connacht can replicate their defensive effort again this match will be competitive.

The other three Provinces can be thankful to their outhalves for playing key roles in their results. David Humphrey’s younger brother Ian got the match-winning try in what was a famous victory at Ravenhill over Clermont. I still fancy Clermont to win the group outright but they will need to play with more passion and desire to do so. Ulster this weekend must travel to Welford Road, which is up there with Thomond Park as one of the fortresses of Europe. Its very hard to see Ulster get anything from this game even though the Tiger’s recent form hasn’t been impressive.

Leinster will be disappointed to have only got the two points against Montpelier away but I firmly believe that they will be crucial at the end of the group stages. Leinster played well and were a little unfortunate that a few uncharacteristic turnovers really cost them. Sean Cronin came off the bench to replace Richardt Straus and he demonstrated the pace that makes him one of the best ball carrying hookers in the game. His try was a brilliant individual effort and it really swung the momentum in Leinster’s,favor in the dying minutes. Leinster turned down a kickable penalty at one stage to kick to the corner and try and win the match but in the end, they were grateful for a last minute penalty, which Johnny Sexton calmly slotted. I cant see either Bath or Glasgow beating Montpelier in France and the French team wont beat Leinster in Dublin so Leinster are still in pole position ahead of Glasgow’s visit to the RDS this Sunday. Glasgow will come to the RDS with a lot of confidence having won there in the Rabo Direct last month and having beaten Bath in Scotland last week. I expect Leinster to win comfortably but the 15-point start that Glasgow receives might prove to be over generous and could be the value bet.

The game of the weekend was at Thomond Park where Northampton arrived full of belief that they could conquer Munster. The men in Red have only ever lost once at home in the Heineken Cup and they needed every ounce of the European experience that they have in abundance to withstand a brave Northampton effort. I have never witnessed a finish like it at any level of Rugby. The fitness, desire, skill and composure that Munster showed to keep the ball for 41 phases of play as they went from Normal time to injury time was incredible. Denis Leamy carried the ball 10 times in that passage of play alone. That’s more that some players get over 80 minutes. Ronan O’Gara lives for the pressure and he drop goaled it straight between the posts when he was 40 meters out but happy that Northampton wouldn’t be able to block it down. Northampton were out on their feet at that stage and weren’t able to send anyone to pressurize Rog as they were punch drunk with fatigue. This win could and should boost Munster massively and it could break the Saints will. Munster introduced three Heineken Cup debutants in Conor Murray, Peter O’ Mahoney and Danny Barnes and it looks like the next generation are made of the same stuff as the old. Saturday Munster travel to Castre looking to pick up a invaluable away win. I was part of a Leinster team, which lost to Castre away in 2009, and it is a difficult ground to get a win at. I expect this game to be very tight and with Munster getting something from the match if not the win.

Having spent 5 years playing my trade West of the Shannon and striving to play in the Heineken Cup tonight’s opening match at the Stoop where Harlequins entertain Connacht is one I am looking forward to greatly. Connacht may have gained entry only by virtue of Leinster win last season but they must now capitalize on that opportunity and grow as a team and as a brand over the coming months. I am delighted for “Mr. Connacht Rugby” as far as I am concerned Eric Elwood who now gets the chance to coach his native province in a tournament that he would have loved to have played in. Eric is an emotional man when it comes to Connacht Rugby and the team needs to tap into that emotion and desire to challenge Quins this evening. When the draw was made Connacht fans probably expected Toulouse and Gloucester to be the harder fixtures in the group but Harlequins are the form team in England and are 8 from 8 in the Premiership so far. However they are a side that Connacht are familiar with having locked horns with the team frequently in the Challenge cup in recent years. Conor O’Shea’s outfit are a very well balanced outfit but I am'nt sure if they have the squad to fit a major battle in two tournaments of the quality of the Heineken and the Premiership yet and I believe that Connacht can get in amongst them tonight and stay within the Handicap of 16 points.

Leinster have a tough opening fixture against the French side Montepellier and all the talk this week has been about Brian O’Driscoll's injury. While Brian will be a massive loss on the field he will be a great addition off it and his absence gives Fergus McFadden a great opportunity to play a run of matches in his favorite position. Leinster will have worked very hard on their scrum and defensive lineout maul this week and that is where Montpellier will test them. I was very impressed with Leinster's attack last week and with the Montpellier players a little short of game time together having had their match called off last week due to an outbreak of the mumps amongst their opponents Lyon I expect Leinster to win.

Munster have been the best team in the History of the Heineken Cup and they face another huge challenge with Northampton arriving at Thomond Park. Harlequins beat Munster in the Challenge Cup last season and Leicester were the only team to have ever beaten Munster in the Heineken Cup there so it really is a Fortress. On paper Northampton look like they could have Munster’s measure but with the experience and hunger in that Munster side it’s very hard to bet against Munster.

Click ther Bet Now button for the latest Heineken Cup betting.

The bet of the weekend for me is the match at Ravenhill where Clermont travel with their star studded outfit to play Ulster. I recognize that Ulster at Ravenhill in the Heineken Cup are a formidable side and Stephen Ferris adds a lot to the men in white but having watched Ulster frequently this season I feel that they haven’t built on the momentum they gained last year from finishing 3^rd in the Magner's League and making a quarter final in the Heineken. This is Clermont’scentenary year and they have been very open about the fact that Europe is their number one focus this season. They have H Cup experience and have shown an ability to get wins on the road in recent years and I make them my Banker bet this weekend minus 1 point at 10/11. Click the Bet Now button to make money for more Heineken over the weekend.

And then there were two. We are in the last week of the Rugby World Cup and the pre tournament favourites are very short odds to win their first World Cup since 1987. In their way stands France who on form don’t deserve to be any where near a final but they are a team who have caused the Kiwis heartache at two previous tournaments and that will help focus the All Blacks minds this week as I am sure the hype and expectation will be massive. They deserve to win it in my opinion as they have been the standard bearers of World Rugby for most of the last 20 years and one World Cup is a very poor return for that domination.

The standard of the All Blacks 20-6 win over Australia on Sunday morning was far higher than what we witnessed on Saturday morning when the Welsh team who had beaten Ireland so impressively were unlucky losers to the French. In my opinion and this goes against the Majority I know, Sam Warburton the Welsh captain should have been given a Yellow Card rather than the Red that Alain Rolland issued. Rolland is one of the best referees in the game and he refereed the final at the last world cup so is obviously highly though of by the head honchos at the IRB too. The IRB want to stamp out the “Spear Tackle” out of the game and they have instructed referees to come down heavy on this act. However I have taken note of at least 4 tackles that I would deem to be more dangerous during this tournament that has only resulted in a Yellow Card. We need greater consistency. I would argue that because Red Cards are so rare in rugby, this was only the 16^th ever in the Tournament, that the referee should use the video ref for any decision that the ref may feel warrants a red card just as they do for tries about which there is a doubt. Making a decision at the spur of the moment without the benefit of another experts opinion can ruin a match. This tackle was very different than the spear tackle that Brian O Driscoll suffered on the Lions tour to New Zealand in 2005 where he was picked up at a Ruck and rammed into the ground head first by two players. He didn’t have the ball at the time and the action was far more dangerous than what Warburton did. I would argue that as a ball carrier a certain amount of responsibility lies with you to ensure that you fall correctly. Its very rare in training or a match to be able to get both legs of a ball carrier and it’s a very fine line between a perfect tackle and what was deemed a “spear’ in that Match. The Tackled player Clerc is a much smaller man than Warburton and that is why he was easy to pick up.

If Warburton had only received a yellow card then I have no doubt that they would have won as they had to play 60 minutes with only 14 men and they still were only beaten by 1 point. They scored the only try of the match through scrum half Mike Phillips and instead of showboating he could easily have tried to make it under the posts which would have guaranteed the conversion which Stephen Jones missed. It’s a sign of how much this talented French team have slipped back that confronted with only 14 men they decided to kick the leather off the ball and never went for the jugular. It defies best practice that with a dysfunctional relationship between the Head Coach and the players they are still in the tournament but I feel that they will be exposed on Saturday.

The All Blacks are too efficient at the basics to allow the French cause them any trouble and I fear that if New Zealand can get a lead earlier then it could be a whitewash which wouldn’t be good for the game with a huge audience set to be watching around the World.

With Weepu at scrum half having lost 7 kilos during the tournament in much better shape and kicking for goal well this is allowing 3^rd string Out Half ArronCruden settle in and pull the strings in attack. For a small man his defence is very good as he understands his physical limitations and chops the opposition down at the ankles.

While the odds are stacked heavily against the French, they have defied the odds many times before and should not be underestimated completely. France are the first team to make the final despite losing two games and, although they benefited from a controversial red card, have created history nonetheless. They have had a couple of wins from their past nine visits to Eden Park which is better than anyone else in world rugby at this venue. In their last visit to New Zealand, France also inflicted the last loss the All Blacks had on home soil, in Wellington during 2009

So it all comes down to the All Blacks and France. I'm not too sure many would have tipped that as the World Cup final – I certainly didn't.

While the odds are stacked heavily against the French, they have defied the odds and should not be underestimated. France are the first team to make the final despite losing two games and, although they benefited from a controversial red card, have created history nonetheless.

We shouldn't be too quick to write off the French. It is particularly worthy to note that they have had a couple of wins from their past nine visits to Eden Park – probably better than anyone else in world rugby at this venue. In their last visit to New Zealand, France also inflicted the last loss the All Blacks had on home soil, in Wellington during 2009.

France were no match for the Kiwis in their earlier pool match at this tournament receiving a 37-17 hammering.

Since then, France have lost to Tonga and have experienced numerous internal issues within the management and the squad apparently. The reality is, though, the French rugby culture is driven by emotion, conflictand they wear their hearts on their sleeves. You never know where they are on the rollercoaster. Their cycle is predictable in its lack of predictability. Marc Liveremont has done himself no favours again this week with his media outburst and I wouldn’t be surprised if we never see him coaching professionally again.

It would be the biggest shock in World Cup history were they to win and it would defy all the believes about what sort of unity and preparation that you need to win a Tournament of this nature. I really believe that New Zealand will win but I hope that France do themselves Proud on the night.

In the 3^rd and 4^th place play off match I feel that Wales will over turn a Wallaby team that have suffered physical hammerings over the last two weeks and this will tell when the Welsh lift the pace of the game as they are bound to do.

Dont forget our RWC Cash Back and for the latest RWC betting click the BET NOW button below and remember we will have LIVE IN PLAY betting for both RWC matches at the weekend.

 

Everyone is starting to Believe! Believe in this Irish team and the amazing journey that they are undertaking at the Rugby World Cup in New Zealand. They shocked the World when they disposed of the Tri Nations Champions Australia in the group stages a fortnight ago and threw the whole draw for the knockout stages wide open. We then completely dominated Italy in a high-pressure game last weekend

That Italian team was a grizzled bunch with over 350 caps amongst their starting front row and replacements alone. Many of this Italian team have been responsible changing the impression of Italy as a soccer country that played a bit of rugby to been able to hold their head up high in both codes. They were in the same situation as Ireland with a significant percentage of their players taking part in what will be there last world cup. It was also the last campaign of their South African coach Nick Mallet whose contract hasn’t being renewed. Mallet was very popular amongst the players and they really wanted to send him out on a high. 

We all wondered could Ireland repeat the heroics of Australia but given the pressure involved the 36-6 defeat must rank as one of Irelands finest performances ever. We implemented exactly the right game plan to target the Italians two critical weaknesses. 1) We were fitter than them and 2) their defence out wide was much weaker than that around the ruck. Attacking them out wide aided testing their fitness as we moved their heavy pack around the field consistently throughout the game. Ronan O’Gara should take great credit and the plaudits for his contribution as I felt apart from his assured kicking, which we take for, granted at this stage of his career. The accuracy and variation on his passing was superb. It was also great to see Johnny Sexton come on and contribute and most importantly kick his goals, which will boost his confidence levels, no end.

There wasn’t an Irish player who didn’t play well and it really seems that there is great morale amongst the whole squad and even the non-22 are contributing on and off the pitch, which is vital. Much had been spoken during the build up about the Scrum and whether we could match up to the Italians. Credit must go again to the Front row who refused to take a backwards step in this area which demoralized the Italians and they started to get dirty and distracted. Cian Healy because of his youth was certainly targeted but despite nearly boiling over a few times kept his nerve and had another cracking game. For me the back row where the main reason why we won the match. Sean O Brien was man of the match but it could have quite easily gone to Stephen Ferris or Jamie Heaslip. With the sheer power and destruction that O’Brien and Ferris bring to their ball carrying Jamie Heaslip has slipped into the backround and he despite being a world class ball carrier himself is now doing a lot of the work that doesn’t get a huge amount of attention in the media like tidying up loose ball and scavenging at ruck time but it is a critical area in any team.

Brent Pope said on the RTE panel after the match that O’Brien is now the talk of New Zealand. Well its not just New Zealand, after Sundays match “Seanobrienfacts” was trending on twitter worldwide. Interesting facts that it included where 1) Chuck Norris checks under his bed for Sean O’Brien before going to bed. 2) Sean won 1^st, 2^nd and 3^rd at the ploughing championship, but without a tractor. 3) When Superman goes to bed he wears Sean O ‘Brien pajamas!

Wales this weekend is probably our semi final as they are in better form that both France and England. They look incredibly fit but I really feel our experience in winning Knock out rugby from the Heineken cup will stand to us. Their players have tried to make an issue of the baggage that our team is carrying from underperforming at previous World Cups and how their Youth and Exuberance means that they have no fear. I think that it’s the opposite and it’s their players who will have the baggage from not being able to beat Irish teams when it counts for their regional sides. Irelands greater experience means that they know what to expect from the occasion whereas for most of the Welsh players it will be the biggest game that they have ever played in.

The Welsh certainly are playing an exciting brand of Rugby and have completed the most carries and passes of any team in the competition. They scored 62 points in their last outing against Fiji and their back three of Williams, Halfpenny and North are exciting runners. They can crash up the middle to with Jamie Roberts back to his pre Lions tour of 2009 form again and the Scarlet’s center Jonathon Davies impressing. They will obviously target ROG in defense but there is nothing new there and I expect that Kidney will earmark Murray and O’Brien to cover the 10 channels. To stop them playing the brand of rugby that they want I think Ireland will set a trap for Mike Phillips. It’s a tactic that we used in Leinster in the past when playing the Ospreys and it works because Phillips generally runs from the base before he passes. The defender opposite their out half Rhys Priestland shoots out of the line when the ball is out of the ruck and when Phillip sees that he cant pass clearly to his playmaker he then turns back inside and has a run himself. Ireland must then hit him hard and try and counter ruck as the wide-wide pattern that they play means that they don’t have a lot of support in this zone.

The Set piece is another area that we should dominate and Rory Bests return to fitness is crucial. He plays a huge role in our scrum and for a bloke who isn’t that big he is deceptively strong and has very good technique. Also our lineout stats at 91% are the best in the competition so far although Wales’s lineout has been solid so far I believe that we can really disrupt the quality of the delivery if not steal the ball.

France may pull off a surprise against England as the latest rumors coming from the French camp is that Dimitri Yachvili and Imanol Harinordoquy have taken control of the team and shown some leadership. Marc Lievremont had never coached an adult team apart from Dax in the Pro D 2 for a short period and its all gone pear shaped for him.

Whatever about his bizarre selections and tactics he committed the ultimate no-no for a coach, when he criticized his players in public rather than private after their defeat to Tonga last week. He then invited the players to drink some beers with him but they refused and instead watched the match video as a group without him. If the French players row in behind the two Biarritz men they have a chance but it’s hard to know what they might do to be honest!

I expect New Zealand and South Africa to win the other matches. For Ireland if we beat Wales tomorrow then we are there till the end regardless as there is a play off for 3 and 4th place. But this team can go the final.

For the latest RWC betting click the Bet Now Button Below.

Ireland dealt comfortably with the Russian challenge in the early hours of last Sunday morning. They scored 9 tries and Declan Kidney took advantage of the opportunity to rest so of the first choice players and get them ready for Italy. It was also a chance to blood some of the back up players and it was very important for squad morale that they got to play and now they can feel that they have contributed at a World cup on the pitch as well as on the training field. This didn’t happen at the World Cup in 2007 when because of the first choice 15’s lack of form Eddie O Sullivan was forced to play them right through the group matches and it led to discontent in the squad.

The Russian game was Paddy Wallace’s first start for Ireland despite this being his 3^rd World cup. Now 29 of Irelands 30 man squad have played some part in the competition with Damien Varley who flew out last week to replace Jerry Flannery being the only exception. Andrew Trimble continued his pre tournament form and is the only one who may force his way into the starting team for the Italian match this weekend although the man that he is trying to replace Keith Earls also had a fine game although he was playing in the center rather than wing. The only players that I felt might have harmed their chances were Tony Buckley and Johnny Sexton. Tony Buckley is one of the strongest and biggest players at this World but he still hasn’t mastered the art of propping. He was penalized 3 times at the scrum and that isn’t good enough playing against a team of the standard of Russia. It’s too big a risk to include him in the match squad for the Italian match or any of the knock out games if we make it through. 

The Ronan O’ Gara V Johnny Sexton debate isn’t going to go away with O’Gara making another huge statement for his case for selection. It was ironic that just as Johnny Sexton who came off the bench was lining up a kick at goal the stadium announcer announced that Rog was the man of the match and Sexton proceeded to shank the kick badly. O Gara got the backline moving very well and he used the kick pass tactic of which he is a master incredibly accurately. I am a huge fan of Sexton and think that he overs more overall than O Gara but given his issues with place kicking that he is experiencing at the moment allied to O Gara’s form then I would select O’Gara ahead of Sexton for the Italian match. The Italians are still going to be the huge challenge that they were before we beat Australia last week and it is going to be a very tight match in which field position and goal kicking will be crucial.

There has been a lot of hype about Nick Mallets comments that Italy have a better scrum than Ireland. I feel that he is just trying to boost his own players confidence and also influence the Referee ahead of the clash. Mallets contract hasn’t been renewed post the World Cup so in effect he has nothing to lose as this game is do or die for him. The Italians did dominate the scrum in Rome in the Spring and the technique that they used was unusual in that they didn’t try and drive us backwards but instead brought the height of the scrum down very low and kept the ball at the eights feet. Our props weren’t used to having to stay at this height for long periods and eventually collapsed and were penalized. This time I don’t expect us to be caught out and forewarned is forearmed.

I thought that Jamie Heaslip showed good form against Russia and when he links up again with Ferris and O Brien this weekend then our back row has the edge over the Italians despite their number 8 Sergio Parisse being World Class. It promises to be a tense affair but I believe we are good enough to overcome the challenge and win our Group outright which will pit us against Wales in a quarterfinal.

Click the Bet Now button below for the latest RWC betting.

Following on from the huge build up to the Australian match Sundays clash with Russia has been predictably low key. Because of the great win and the massive performance last week Declan Kidney and his management have been able to stick to what I expect was the pre tournament strategy of using the Russia game to rest the key players and give some of the fringe members of the Squad game time. After the game Sunday morning 29 of our 30 man squad will have played in a World Cup the odd man out being Damien Varley who replaced Jerry Flannery. The benefits of Squad rotation are two fold. Its very hard to play matches of this intensity 5-6 weeks in a row and also if the fringe players don’t get sufficient game time they can feel marginalized and it effects the whole squads morale.

The only real area on interest in terms of the selection for me is Fergis McFadden on the wing and Paddy Wallace at inside centre. With doubts about Gordon D’Arcys fitness it seems that Declan will play Paddy there. Paddy Wallace is an excellent footballer but isn’t the most physical of players and looking further down the track opposition centres like Jamie Roberts and Manu Tuilagi could make holes in this area. I presume that Tom Court has a knock as I would have preferred to see Cian Healy rested and hopefully Mike Ross doesn’t need to play too much or pick up an Injury.

Tim Horan has got quite a bit of attention for his suggestion that Irelands tactics to beat Australia where based around feigning injury to make the game a stop-start affair. He was quoted as saying that Ireland Backs coach Alan Gaffney told him in the Irish dressing room afterwards that was our Plan. Declan Kidney has rubbished the rumours and said that Horan didn’t even speak to Gaffney and wasn’t in the Irish team dressing room. It just shows how the Australians are struggling to accept their defeat. They were comprehensively outplayed and outsmarted and they should look at them selves rather than for excuses. I am sure that Ireland didn’t have a policy on the area but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that if you are leading a match with a few minutes to go there is no need to rush to a set piece etc. That’s what winning teams do! It’s the same as putting the ball in Row Z at Sunday morning Soccer match for a pub team!

In next weeks Blog I will review our performance against Russia and look at the key head to heads for the Italian Job!

For all the latest markets on the Ireland V Russia match,click the Bet Now button below and re,member to check out our RWC Handicap special.

What a great weekend of Sport. Events in Auckland on Saturday morning and the quality and drama of the All Ireland Final yesterday certainly will have given the Irish public a spring in their step. The Irish rugby team ripped up the formbook and pulled off our greatest victory ever at a World Cup in beating the Tri Nations winners Australia. The upset has potentially thrown the World Cup Draw wide open and if we can now beat Italy in two weeks we will avoid Southern Hemisphere opposition all the way to the final should be progress that far. With Wales victory over Samoa they will now most likely finish 2^nd in Pool D and would be our opponent in the Quarterfinal. If we were to beat Wales we are likely to play either France or England who both have shown weaknesses in their Pool Games so far.

Where did this performance come from? One man doesn’t make a team but he sure can make a huge difference. Even more so if his name is Sean O’ Brien. I am biased about his quality having seen Sean play since he was under 14 for Tullow but to play your first ever game at a World Cup having been out for nearly a month with a knee injury to have such an impact and influence on the game was incredible. The European Player of the year exudes confidence and even his media interviews from during the week when he was quoted as saying “if there are no holes to run at I will make the holes” sends out the message that he was there to get the job done no matter what was put in his way. He had an absolute stormer from choking the ball in the first player of the game and winning Ireland a turnover to countless carries that got over the gain line and he also was Top of Irelands tackle count tally. With Stephen Ferris having a blinder and Jamie’s Heaslip hitting form again we now have a back row that can go toe to toe with any in this tournament and dominate most.

While Ireland brought two quality players into the pack in Cian Healy and Sean O’Brien Australia lost two when David Popock and Stephen Moore were force to pull out through injury before kick off. Popock is the best openside in the World at the moment at the breakdown and he certainly would have made it harder for us to be as dominant there had he played. Stephen Moore likewise is a key part of the Australian scrum and his replacement Tatafu Polota-Nau had a shocker. Another factor that helped us was the rain that fell before and during the match. This generation of Australians are the “Drought Generation” and they have really struggled to adapt to wet conditions whenever they have played in them. Think back to the Munster V Australia match in Thomond Park last year played in a downpour and how the Australian’s game plan came unstuck.

They are the youngest team at the World Cup and Ireland exploited that by playing a highly pressurized game, which exploited their weaknesses brilliantly. When we kicked we generally kicked long to Quade Cooper who Robbie Deans plays at Full Back on defence to protect his defensive frailties knowing that Quade cant resist the opportunity to run it back. Although he is a brilliant runner the Irish chase line was excellent and he time and time again ran into a cul de sac and was turned over. I thought that Australia portrayed a certain amount of arrogance by not doing their video work and ignoring the threat that the “Choke’ Tackle technique posed to them. Quade Cooper after the game was quoted as saying that he was surprised that Ireland defended like that and were so good at it despite this having been the mainstay of our defensive system since 2009. The way the Australians sent a ball carrier on his own running into the Irish defence time and time again was a huge tactical error and also their ball carriers ran too high more often than not. To counteract the “choke technique” the support player/players must be right behind the ball carrier and ‘tackle the tackler’ to ensure the breakdown becomes a ruck rather than a maul.

Australia will learn a lot from this defeat and a still a threat to all the teams. I wonder will Robbie Deans be regretting his decision to leave Matt Giteau out of the squad, as he would have been a great option to come on and try and win the match. For Ireland credit must go to all the players and the Management for getting the preparation spot on. Ireland played with an intensity that we have only seen once over the last 12 months which was against England in March. They used all their experience and self belief got from winning Grand Slams, Heineken Cups and Magner's Leagues to forget about recent form and concentrate on winning the game that mattered most of all. Declan Kidney is the master of getting his teams into the right state of mind and Brian O Driscoll's interview afterwards told us that Declan had got Jerry Flannery to present the team with the Jerseys on Thursday and how that inspired the players to seize the opportunity. Jerry has been a huge part of the team for most of the last decade and hopefully will be again. His own future is in doubt now due to injury and the respect that the players have for him both as a player and a friend is massive. If that presentation was have to have happened on the morning of the game there was a chance that the players might have became over cooked and not performed to the level that they did.

I think that Declan will rest a lot of his front line players this week against Russia and start the build up to Italy in two weeks time. I certainly wouldn’t risk Cian Healy or Mike Ross as the Italians will target our scrum and those two lads are key to our chances. This Irish team owes us nothing but they owe themselves a semi final place at least.

 

I expect to see a huge performance from Ireland Saturday morning against Australia. I like the team selected although I would have gone for McFadden at 12 and Trimble on the wing instead of Earls. Declan Kidney has resisted the temptation to select Ronan O’ Gara even though he has probably been in better form recently than Johnny Sexton as he obviously believes that Sexton both defensively and in terms of presenting a threat as a ball runner offers more. I would agree with that opinion but as I stated last week I just hope that we can settle on our half back partnership now and let them control the team and dictate how we play. Amazingly this the first time that Eoin Reddan and Sexton will start together in the Irish jersey and their time on the pitch together has only happened on 3 occasions which shows how much time went into trying to play Tomas O Leary into form. This Irish team unlike the Provinces seems to be much more comfortable in the role of Underdog and we always seem to drop down to the level of our opponent if playing a side we should be able to hammer. The squad will be under no illusions that unless they get themselves absolutely right physically and mentally this week we could be well beaten.

Although our attacking game has looked very ponderous I have been very impressed with our defensive system so far and expect us to vary our tactics of either blasting Australian rucks with lots of bodies to try and get at Australian danger man Will Genia or else try and only put the tackler in the ruck so that we can have 10 players in the front defensive line which will make it difficult for Quade Cooper to throw those long passes that he loves so much. Sean O Brien and Cian Healy will give us two more powerful ball carriers in the pack and we need to be much more aggressive at the breakdown so that when O Driscoll gets the ball in the 13 channel he has time to make the killer pass or break.  I fancy Ireland to stay within the plus 13 points that are on offer with Betpack and a tight match even if we lose will give us momentum for the Italy match in a fortnights time.

 The other match that I fancy a punt on this weekend is the Wales V Samoa match. Wales were very impressive against South Africa and looked by far the most cohesive of the 6 Nations teams. However Samoa were able to beat Australia in June and have serious power throughout the team. They are suffering from a shorter turnaround than Wales and have 3 days less rest however I still expect them to stay within 9 points and may be worth a few bob on the Match betting at 5-2.

Yesterday mornings victory over the USA got us off the mark in pool C but failing to gain the bonus point for not scoring 4 tries and the lack of penetration in our attacking play has left a bad taste in most of the Irish Rugby Publics mouth. The lack of a bonus point wont matter unless we end up drawing with the Italians but in terms of knocking already brittle confidence levels it might have a big impact. The team and management urged us to believe that the performances we witnessed in August were only curtain raisers for the Tournament proper and “it would be all right on the night” once the real competition started. Unfortunately it’s very rare in top class sport and for sportspeople to be able to flick on and off a switch when they want to hit peak performance, which is why a run of good form and excellent training methods and habits are so sought after going into a big event.

Despite non stop reports coming back from New Zealand about how much fun the Irish Rugby Squad are having in Camp having spent the first week in the adventure center of the World Queenstown and how good the pre season went at Carton House if we are to judge the current health of the Squad then we must judge them on the performances in matches alone and over the 6 matches played over the past 6 weeks we have some serious issues that need to be solved this week or we may continue our appalling record at Rugby World Cups.

We have looked very predictable in our attacking formation and for even teams as limited as the USA its meat and drink to any side that is prepared to front up and make head on tackles. We don’t have the physical power of the South Africans or the Islander side’ s and we need to use our imagination and innate footballing ability to create and take try-scoring opportunities. Even with a scrum and lineout maul that had our opponent under immense pressure we made bad decisions in our opponents 22 time and time again and left without keeping the scoreboard ticking over. As Brent Pope said on the after match analysis, “you should never give a sucker an even break” and in my opinion we should have went for the jugular once it was obvious that we were able to win lineout ball virtually uncontested and could maul or push them over the line in the scrum. Had we done this and got the 4 try bonus point on board early the Americans heads would have dropped and we then could have started to throw the ball around with less anxiety and more confidence.

They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome. We have only played to our potential in one game of our last 10 which was England in the Aviva in March and I feel that this week the Squad need to have a root and branch review of where they are heading over the next few weeks and how best to get there. We have found ourselves in a situation where we don’t know our first choice hooker, scrum half, outhalf or fullback yet. The most important position in any team is the outhalf and in Jonathon Sexton and Ronan O’Gara we have two world-class players. Both however are Alpha Males and are used to calling the shots for their provinces and the uncertainty is affecting Sextons game and the teams play. Ronan O Gara wrote in his autobiography of an argument he had with Eddie O Sullivan after an Ireland Match where David Humphreys replaced him with 20 minutes to go saying that if the coach didn’t trust his ability to finish the game then he would find it hard to believe he had the coach’s confidence and backing. I think that the time has come for Declan to back one horse and stick with him for the next few games. All the tournament favorites have a clear number one at outhalf. The management can’t solve the issues alone and neither can the players, everyone must come together in a similar process that the squad went through in the Famous Enfield camp preceding the Grand Slam win in 2009. The players are at the coalface and they know what will work or wont work in a test match and the coaches know how to set up the team best to exploit those opportunities. Small things like better communication between players and coaches or a small change in our style of play can make a huge impact on the squads confidence and belief which we badly need with the formidable test of Australia coming up and the Italians waiting in the long grass for us on the 2^nd of October.

 

The French public doesn’t hold out a huge amount of hope for their team’s chances in this years World Cup so they are pretty satisfied with the performance and victory over Ireland in Bordeaux on Saturday evening. There is no doubting the quality of the players that France can choose from but the cut throat nature of the domestic Top 14 season where qualification for the Heineken Cup or survival often means that the players are forced to make decisions regarding playing with injury etc. with the club in mind rather than country as is the case in countries like Ireland where players are contracted to the Union. A record defeat at home to Australia in the November internationals and a shock defeat to Italy in the 6 nations has further dampened confidence levels with many believing that Mark Lievremont has got it wrong with his decision to only play two warm up matches, both ironically against Ireland.

Having said that playing France away is always a huge task and even more so in the south where Rugby is king and the atmosphere in the Stade Chablan-Delmas was electric. In fact in terms of an occasion it was far removed from the dour and lifeless event we witnessed the previous week in Edinburgh. This was a proper test match. France came out of the blocks really quickly and Ireland had to test their defensive system for the 2^nd week running. I thought the system looked strong in generally and Vincent Clerc who has a habit of scoring against Ireland try was the only major lapse which came about through some illegal blocking on the inside of Leo Cullen which created the space. Blocking is a huge part of rugby at the higher levels now and it is very difficult for the referees to pick up on it as they are usually following the ball. Most defensive coaches now use drills modified from American football where the defenders shrug off the block and keep the integrity of the defensive line.

In the first half Ireland didn’t commit many defenders to the breakdown and those that did enter the ruck weren’t successful in slowing down the speed of the Ruck ball. This is unusual for Ireland as a big part of Irelands tactics on defense since Declan Kidney took over and Les Kiss became the defense coach has been to really concentrate on slowing down the opposition’s ball at the breakdown. I imagine it was certainly a topic for conversation at half time as Irelands policy and attitude changes massively in this area in the 2^nd half and we benefited with some turnovers but also the quality of the ball was so slow that France had no option but to kick which allowed us to Counter attack when it was on which happened for Rob Kearney’s great break down field or put the ball in behind via a kick as Felix Jones did. Ronan O’ Gara showed that he is in great form and if he isn’t the first choice outhalf for the big World cup matches its unlikely that any other country has such a quality back up.

The introduction of Jerry Flannery, Paul O Connell and Jamie Heaslip lifted the players and we were unfortunate to not draw the game at the end as we had the French under huge pressure. Tony Buckley replaced Mike Ross and this introduction showed us how important Ross is to our chances of success. You cant win a match at International level unless you have a tight head that can lock out the scrum and unfortunately for all his great work in the loose Tony Buckley struggles against the better teams he isn’t able to do this consistently. This week Ireland plays two matches with a friendly against Connacht Thursday and another test match against France Saturday at the Aviva. This will be the last chance for players of the borderline to stake a claim for a plane ticket to New Zealand. The attitude of every player who has played so far has been excellent but from now on the management will start to streamline selection with an eye on building relationships and understanding within the first choice team.

Its likely we will see Kidneys likely starting fifteen barring injuries this week for the France match and I expect to see O’Connell, Heaslip, Sexton, Wallace and O’Driscoll to start. Their involvement and the fact that it is at home and really is a must win game for us to ensure we start to build momentum will be enough to ensure that we get the win.

Anyone who was fortunate enough to have been in Cardiff this weekend would surely agree with me when I say that we witnessed in the flesh one of the greatest Heineken Cup matches ever. This was definitely the most remarkable of the 16 Heineken Cup finals, a match approaching greatness and a wonderful advertisement for how colorful, passionate and exciting European Club rugby can be. Walking around Cardiff city Saturday afternoon it was great to see Rugby fans from all over Europe enjoying the atmosphere wearing the Jersey of their local team. Perpignan, Toulouse, Ulster, Leicester, Glasgow, Munster and many more were on show. These tickets would have been bought at various stages of the season when they could still legitimaly dream of Heineken Glory. The fact that they still travelled to the final showed what an occasion it has become. We witnessed one of the greatest comebacks in any sport and one of the greatest individual performances in recent years from Jonny Sexton. 

Sport, they say, is as much about character and attitude as technique and ability. Well, this Leinster side is definitely a collection of very special individuals. When the going gets tough the tough get going and its was no surprise to hear Brian O’Driscoll when interviewed on the pitch following the match spoke of how Jonny Sexton rallied the team at half time. Leaders are needed most when backs are to the wall and Leinster have lots of leaders. Jonny apparently spoke about other teams that had came back from big deficits in the past and how the Leinster players would remember this game for the rest of their lives if they could do it. Jonny has huge respect amongst the players and his words would have lifted them but the most significant thing about the 2^nd half was the way Jonny took it on himself to lead the charge. He finished with 28 points, consisting of two tries, three conversions and four penalties. 

Northampton put together 40 minutes of power, pace and aggression as they dominated at the breakdown and destroyed the Leinster scrum. They really looked like a team who felt they had nothing to lose and the ‘underdog’ tag suited them perfectly. We knew that they were strong scrumagers and Leinster would have spent the last few weeks tinkering with their own scrum tactics to try and nullify that strength. The basic premise to what Northampton do at scrum time is that on their feed they initially drive up on the loosehead side of Soane Tonga’uiha and that is easily achieved because of his strength and more importantly the defensive team are quite happy to give Northampton that angle as it negates the 8-9 going right option. Having got a slight left shoulder where Northampton differ from other teams is that they then use Hartley at hooker and Brian Mujati to drive towards Tonga’uiha which usually results in the opposition popping up. Once the scrum pops up it should according to the laws be reset if the referee can’t determine the cause. If one team is judged to have popped up because they couldn’t handle the pressure then they should concede the penalty. Similarly if the referee feels that one team is deliberately driving upwards then they should be penalized. The French referee on Saturday Romain Poite has always been someone who favors the dominant scrum and as far as he is concerned the dominant scrum is the one going forwards regardless of whether they go up on down. Because of Mujati’s short squat frame he was able to stay hidden underneath our front row even though he was the one acting illegally. Even though the scrums in the first half had popped up Northampton kept driving and as they were going forward they won the penalties. 

It was clear that unless they sorted out their scrummaging there was going to be no come back. You can win matches without a lineout but if you have a weak scrum the resultant penalties will kill you. In the ten minutes between halves the Leinster scrum coach Greg Feek earned his salary for the year as he got the Leinster to forget about the previously discussed tactics and go back to what had given Leinster such quality ball in this area all year i.e. everyone working together and driving straight and low. Sounds simple but often the simple things work best and it’s far better to have 8 players working together than in groups of 3 or 4. The turnaround in the scrums in the 2^nd half was amazing and we won two penalties, which led to 6 points. It also led to go forward ball which Sexton, Nacewa, Heaslip, O’ Brien and co turned into line breaks and tries. I have to say that Sean O’Brien was immense again and if there was a Lions tour this summer he would be a shoe in. 

At the final whistle the scenes at Millennium told the story of the match in graphic detail. Every Northampton player slumped to the ground. Many of them were in tears. The despondency was almost tangible. They were broken physically and mentally. There was many Leinster fans in the crowd close to the same state at half time, myself included. I was certainly questioning my own pre match analysis and how I hadn’t seen this coming. Had I over estimated Leinster ability and underestimated Northampton’s strength and power? Leinster didn’t look themselves and unless there was a huge shift in momentum we were finished. But the players believed and once Sexton scored in the 43^rd minute every fan started to believe too. 

Jonny Sexton was definitely the man of the match but I wouldn’t underestimate for one second the influence of Leo Cullen on the day or over the past few seasons. He is a player’s player and while he may not steal the headlines his calmness, leadership and consistency are incredible. He has very high emotional intelligence and he cares about each player being treated fairly, which gains him the respect of anyone who shares a dressing room with. As the Leinster team walked back out the tunnel at half time to face their destiny, having Leo, Shaggy, Darce Brian and Shane Jennings amongst them would have given them real hope. Those lads have been there from the start and they deserve to be double champions of Europe and who knows maybe next year Triple Champions? 

The season isn’t over yet however. They will need to get their tired bodies and mind ready for one more battle. Leinster travel to Munster on Saturday for the final of the Magner’s League in front of what is already a sell out crowd. Munster will be lacking no little motivation and if past games are anything to go by we are in for another epic encounter. 

For my tips this week. I am’nt going to bet on the Magners League Grand Final but instead go for a Leicester and Racing Metro win double which works out at 5/4 on Betpack

All the posturing is over and we now know which the real contenders for trophies this season. Munster and Leinster for the Magners final, Leinster and Northampton in the Heineken Cup final and Saracens and Leicester will play in the Aviva Premiership decider. For all the other teams they can start packing for the beach and give their bodies a well deserved rest but they will have regrets which will leave a bitter taste in their mouths. I was down in Thomond Park on Saturday evening working for RTE TV on their coverage of the Magner’s League semi final between Munster and the Ospreys. There has been much debate over recent weeks about whether or not you can say that Munster have had a unsuccessful season or not when they won 19 matches from 22 in the Magner’s but there was a clear indication of what the Munster faithful think in that only 10,000 people turned up to see the game. They voted with their feet and the excuse that there was a lot of Holy Communions on in the area doesn’t cover up the obvious fall out.

The game itself was lifeless and Munster dominated proceedings for 80 minutes without putting the contest out of reach through some poor decision making in the Ospreys 22. Lifeimi Mafi was the chief culbrit as he kicked once when he should have held on and he passed another time when he should have ran with the try line at his mercy. The Ospreys never got out of 2nd Gear and there seems to be a serious issue with their Hunger and attitude. For a team with so many star players they are underachieving and the owners there must be questioning their decision to invest so much money in the region. They only brought 14 fans over to Limerick, which is a farce considering it was a semi final and they were the holders of the trophy.

Munster went back to basics for this game using David Wallace and Damien Varley as ‘one out’ ball carriers in an effort to suck in the Ospreys defence. They managed to go over 15 phases on 3 occasions but when they went to the backs they weren’t able to capitalize. On 3 occasions with points on offer Ronan O’ Gara decided to kick for the corner only for the Ospreys to disrupt Munster’s maul successfully. The only highlight from the game the impact of 21 year old centre Danny Barnes who scored two tries and looked very industrious. If Munster had of lost the match it would have been their 5th Semi Final in a row to lose. I think their display showed that their confidence has been hurt and with two weeks to prepare for the Final they will give a much improved display against Leinster.

Hopefully Leinster will be going to Thomond Park as Heineken Cup Champions.They have certainly been the best team in Europe this season but that will count for little as Northampton will look to win their 2nd European cup. I am heading over for the match and it promises to be a great occasion. The Flights and Ferries are booked up and they estimate that 40,000 fans from Ireland will be on the move this weekend. The key areas that Northampton are strong is their front row and the back three of Ashton, Foden and Diggins. But the Leinster scrum hasn’t taken a backwards step all season and I accept them to at least gain parity there. Likewise Leinster have looked composed in Defence out wide even when they were outnumbered and under pressure against Toulouse and Leicester and that will stand to them this weekend.

They suffered some injuries in their semi final win over Ulster the most notable being to Brian O’Driscoll and Richardt Strauss however I expect both to play. It will be a huge achievement if Leo Cullen can lead Leinster to a second Heineken Cup. This team are motivated to win as much silverware as possible over their careers and live their lives day to day with this in mind. A lot of teams want to win trophies but they don’t understand or aren’t willing to make the sacrifice on an individual level to do so. If Leinster can win two Trophies over the next fortnight they will be a long way towards creating a legacy.

I am confident that we can keep our run going with a European Double of Harlequins off scratch and Leinster at 2/5 which pays just over 6/4 with BetPack.

 

 

The last round of Magners League regular season matches left the table as it has been all season, dominated by the Irish Provinces. Munster, Leinster and Ulster fill the top three spots in that order and it is now left to the current Champions the Ospreys to fly the Welsh flag in the play offs. While it is great that the Irish teams are now so strong I fell that there are serious issues in Welsh and Scottish Rugby that if not solved will hurt Irish Rugby in the long run given how much we really on our Celtic cousins for our opposition. Attendances are up year on year in the Magners but this wont continue if the results are a foregone conclusion 90% of the time. The Scottish districts are really struggling to generate the level of income required to run a successful professional team and the Welsh while not as hard pressed financially as the Scots are seeing their top players being poached by the Flush French clubs.

 

It may be time for the Scottish and Welsh rugby unions to try and come up with some kind of incentive that keeps their Top players playing domestically. The tax break for pro sports people in Ireland has proved very successful in ensuring that Irish Rugby is successful on the pitch. The Welsh regions need to have a look at their coaching systems and whether they are operating under a High Performance Culture or still amateurish in their approach. The game is changing all the time and if you stand still you are being left behind. It’s a sad indicatment on Welsh rugby that they haven’t had a Heineken cup finalist since Cardiff lost to Toulouse in the first year of the competition in 1996.

 

I was working on RTE Television for Munster versus Connacht match on Friday night from Thomand  Park .  It was a hard match to analyse as it was a pretty tepid affair which Munster won 22-6 in the end in front of only 11,000 fans. I expected a real backlash from Munster given how poor they had been when they lost  to Harlequins at the same venue just 7 days earlier. However they didn’t seemed focused and this was shown by some of their indiscipline. The best example of this indiscipline was when Referee David Wilkinson was admonishing a bemused Denis Leamy for some  rucking of a blatantly offside Connacht forward at a ruck.  Paul O’Connell and Leamy argued that the same thing had just happened to Alan Quinlan yet no Munster penalty followed.

“Do you want another five or 10 metres?” Wilkinson asked O’Connell, but, before the Munster captain could reply, Leamy accepted the kind offer, saying, “yeah”, leaving the referee with little option but to march the penalty on five or 10 metres. The glance O’Connell gave Leamy was priceless but this incident shouldn’t happen and Munster need to re focus quickly or else they will fall short in a competition that they have dominated all season. They finished 13 points clear of the pack and now face the Ospreys in Thomond Park this weekend in the semi final. This the fifth time that these two teams will meet this season having shared a Heineken Cup group. The more you play a team the closer the matches usually are and the Ospreys will be lacking no little motivation as they will seek to retain their trophy and also honour their departing players and finish the season on a high. They have dominated Munster at the scrum in all their matches this year and Munster will need to shore up this weakness to prevail. At this time of the year with Injuries and fatigue its not about getting better each week as much as what team can decline slowest that wins silverware. Its very easy to take your eye of the ball with talk of holidays and end of season piss ups etc. But when these players reported for pre season 11 months ago their focus was on doing everything right to ensure that they were in the hunt for a trophy or in Leinster case trophies this week. Its important to maintain that focus.

 

Leinster will face Ulster at home on Friday night having dispatched Glasgow for a bonus point win and Ulster went to the Dragons and got the win. Ulster will be missing Andrew Trimble, Stephen Ferris and Paddy Wallace due to injury and its hard to see them upsetting the home team. They have made real progress this season and having quailified for the Heineken Cup quarters and Magners semi finals they will look forward to building on that next year. Connacht are the province is the toughest position as usual but for different reasons than usual. They have had their best season since the game went pro and finished ahead of Treviso, Aironi and Glasgow yet they are losing their 4 best players to Munster (1) and Leinster (3). Having played for Connacht over 2 different periods I understand why these players are leaving. The Heineken Cup is a great draw and also when you retire you want to be able to have something tangible in the form of Medals to show for your efforts. Realistically Connacht are still a long way from winning silverware but if those players main motivation for leaving was to play in the Heineken they may have made an error. If Leinster go on to beat Northampton in the Heineken Cup final Saturday week then Connacht will be promoted to the Heineken next season.

 

Of the 4 players leaving none are guaranteed their spots at Munster at Leinster and they could find themselves warming the bench while Connacht are playing in the Top tier with inferior players. If Connacht get in to the main Competition they have very little time to recruit the type of quality required to compete at that level. Still I believe that getting into the Heineken would be a positive step for Connacht and would generate huge interest in the province which will help the game grow there.

 

In terms of tips this week I am looking for another winner and going for a treble of Saracens (2/5) Leicester (4/9) and Leinster (1/5). The treble works out at 5/4 and I think it will add to our profits. I am working for RTE again at the Munster V Ospreys match down in Thomond Park and I think that it’s a very hard match to call as I don’t know which Ospreys team will turn up. They are talented but if they play like they did against Aironi last weekend they will be beaten out the gate.

BET NOW!

Leinster were magnificent in front of 50,000 spectators at the Aviva Stadium Saturday. It was a brilliant game of rugby that will go down in history as one of the great battles in this superb competition. Comparisons will be made with the great Semi Final at the old Lansdowne road between Munster and Wasps which Wasps just edged in the final minutes in 2004. To have a game of this quality both teams need to play to the maximum of their ability, which there is no doubt Toulouse and Leinster did. Leinster are now hot favorites to win the Final on May 21^st at the Millennium stadium against Northampton who dealt impressively with a shell shocked Perpignan at Milton Keynes yesterday.

 

If Leinster are to go on and win this Cup they have done it the hard way. They came out of an incredibly tricky group containing Saracens, Clermont Auvergne and Racing Metro. Topping that pool earned them the right to play Leicester in the quarterfinals, which again was probably the toughest team in the draw after Toulouse. Northampton have had the easier run with Ulster and Perpignan two teams who you wouldn’t have fancied as contenders back in September.

 

Winning this match didn’t just take an incredible amount of skill and hard work. It took huge mental strength as Leinster went behind 7-0 after only 3 minutes when David Skrela’s penalty kick hit the cross bar to take a bounce that only a rugby ball can and land in the hands of Florian Fritz. Such a set back compounded by the quality of Rugby being played by the opposition would have been insurmountable for teams and players with less character but this team has kept the Mental toughness instilled under Michael Cheika and taken it to a new level. 

 

The key factors in the win were Johnny Sextons kicking 8 from 8. The charge by Cian Healy in the 52th minute lifting the team and the stadium. The substitutions of Isaac Boss and Heinke Van Der Merwes in the 53^rd minute were also crucial and it was Van Der Merwes power in his first scrum which force a penalty and allowed Leinster build a lead. Brian O’ Driscoll a day after missing the Royal wedding to rest up for the game got the crucial try once again. For Joe Schmidt’s Leinster’s coach to win a Heineken Cup in his first year would be an incredible achievement and it would be testimony to his quality. The players are determined to build a legacy and having won it in 2009, being semi finalists in 2010, winning it in 2011 would go along way towards cementing that. 

 

The shock of this weekend’s action was undoubtedly Harlequins win over Munster in Thomond Park in the semi final of the Amlin Challenge Cup. I thought before the game that Conor O’Shea was doing a great job at Harlequins but that it would be a year or 2 before they were at their peak. They made it clear from the first point of contact that they were there to win and they never deviated from that conviction. They actually could have won by more than the final score of 20-12 as they created a few more clear-cut try scoring opportunities. I don’t think I have ever seen a poorer performance at home in Europe by Munster. They struggled at the basics of the Lineout, Scrum, and in particular their one on one tackle success rate was far too low. 

 

This was only Munsters 2^nd ever home defeat in Europe the other being to Leicester Tigers in 2008. They have built Thomond into a fortress by the timidness of their first half display in particular which would have given Quins belief that they had a chance. The introduction of Paul O’Connell and Sammy Tuitupou at half time and Peter Stringer and John Hayes later in the half definitely improved things but Quins had the lead and weren’t in the mood to relinquish it. Maybe there was some complacency underneath the surface of the Munster players as since they were knocked out of the Heineken Cup at the group stages they have been on a winning run. However the win over Brive showed serious flaws in their defence and they don’t seem to be as good at varying their game plan as they were in the past. Teams always feared Munsters Maul, Pick and Go, and directness. They now play a more expansive game but I don’t think it’s as effective if they don’t engage the opposition first.

 

This defeat will probably be good in the long run for Munster as it will make them sit down and take stock of their current status. If they had won the Amlin and the Magners maybe that would have been brushed over. Munster are still a huge force in European rugby but the Munster players, management and fans aren’t interested in being a force. They crave to be the best. How they go about becoming the best again will be very interesting to watch.

 

It's the final weekend of Magners League fixtures and other than table-topping Munster, five teams will be battling it out to secure either a home semi-final or just a spot in the play-offs. All the games will kick-off simultaneously on Friday making for a cracking close to the 2010/2011 campaign. Second placed Leinster go in to their final match knowing they've booked their spot in the last four, but will still be keen to hold down the table position to make sure of their home-semi-final with third-placed Ulster breathing down their necks.

 

Cardiff Blues will hope to maintain their tentative fourth-placed standing as the Ospreys are only one point behind waiting for a slip-up, while the sixth-placed Scarlets are still in with an outside chances provided a few things go their way. The only tip I have for this weekend is Treviso minus 3 against Edinburgh who have been very poor this season. There will definitely be more selections next week in the Magners Semi Finals and Premiership play offs.

Winston Churchill said “ Its much better to have a panic feeling beforehand, and then be calm when things happen than to be extremely calm beforehand and to get into a panic when things happen”. The ability to remain calm in the heat of battle is something which Leinster, Munster, Toulouse and Leicester have proven more than any other teams over the years in the knockout stages of the Heineken Cup. With the Leicester Tigers having fallen to Leinster in the quarter finals and Munster preparing for a semi final clash with Harlequins in the Amlin Challenge Cup Toulouse come to the Aviva with the winner sure to be hot favourites for the Final in Cardiff in late May.

 

Toulouse has won 17 Domestic Championships and 4 Heineken Cups. They are the reigning Heineken Cup champions having disposed of Leinster in the semi finals last year on route to the title. I was part of the Leinster squad that day and I remember the dressing room at half time and the fatigue on every players face such was the physicality that we had faced over the first 40 minutes. We only lost 26-16 in the end but it felt like a hammering such was their domination.

 

Can Leinster win just 12 months later? I am convinced that we can and here are the reasons. 1) This time Leinster are at home and the Aviva will be packed in Blue instead of Red. 2) Last season Leinster were defending the Crown rather than chasing it and chasing it has always been easier with only Leicester having won it back to back. 3) Leinsters form this season has been much better having finished top of an incredibly tough pool and disposing of Leicester already. 4) Johnny Sexton is fit to play this time whereas last year he was injured. Also Leinster have apart from Rob Kearney a clean bill of health whereas Toulouse have some injuries in key positions. 5) Last season Toulouse destroyed Leinster at the scrum, which probably led to the decision to employ Greg Feek as a Scrum coach. Since his appointment and the emergence of Mike Ross as the outstanding scrummager in Europe this season I don’t see Toulouse getting the upper hand in this area and that will be a physiological advantage to Leinster.

 

The key players will be Sean O’ Brien and Isa Nacewa who were both shortlisted for Irish Rugby players of the year this week and Brian O’ Driscoll who always seems to produce on the biggest of occasions. Joe Schmidt in his first year as head coach will know Toulouse more than any Magners team having spent 4 seasons as assistant coach at Clermont. One of the most impressive things about his first season has been his ability to spot weaknesses in the oppositions defence and then design an attack that exploits it. In games of this Magnitude there is usually only one score in it at the end and the difference is often who can score a try. Having watched all of Leinsters matches this season and most of Toulouse I feel that Leinsters attacking shape is more consistent and they will be able to break the French down. 

 

Munster welcome Harlequins to Limerick Saturday in the Amlin quarter finals sitting 14 points clear at the top of the Magners League table and following another impressive away win over the Ospreys on Saturday night with Ronan O Gara kicking a 80^th minute penalty to seal the victory. The way they have refocused after their exit in the group stage of the Heineken has been very impressive and they now stand only 4 games away from what would be an impressive double. Conor O’Shea who played 35 times for Ireland manages harlequins. He has been Director of Rugby at London Irish and also the National Director of the English Institute of Sport and is widely tipped to be in charge of Irish rugby one day.

 

Following their win over Leeds on Sunday Harlequins are now up to 7^th in the Premiership table and are chasing an automatic Heineken Cup spot. Winning the Amlin Cup would also get them into the Heineken but I would expect that Munster will have too much experience for them on the day. They are an exiting team to watch however and lead the Premiership stats in linebreaks, ball carries and off loads. They are also the 2^nd best in tries conceded so they should be doing better but their discipline isn’t as good as it needs to be and with Ronan O Gara’s current form that will hurt them. They are a youngish team and they will be better next year and probably at their peak two years from now.

 

 

Munster have blooded lots of young players over the past couple of months and it will be interesting to see how many keep their place for this weekend. Tomas O’ Leary is due back from injury and Conor Murray has been keeping Peter Stringer on the bench. Who gets the nod at Scrumhalf will certainly be of great interest to Declan Kidney and the Irish management with one eye on the World Cup in September.

 

Betting wise this week I am sticking with the Heineken Cup semi finals and am recommending a double on the match betting on Leinster at 1-2 and Northampton at 4-7 which works out at nearly 6-4. I am pretty confident that home advantage will see the Saints through.

 

Having tipped 3 from 3 last week to continue the great run we are on since I started this Blog this is a weekend for minimizing the stakes and holding fire for the Heineken and Amlin Semi finals next week and the latter stages of the Magners and Aviva Premierships but I will recommend a small double on Edinburgh minus 5 against the Dragons and Glasgow Minus 1 against the Scarlet's in tonight's Magners League action both at 10/11.

 

Rumor has it that Racing Metro the Paris based club are willing to make All Black out half Dan Carter the best paid player in the professional game by offering him one million euro per year for 4 years when his contract with the New Zealand Rugby Union runs out post the World Cup in October. Up till now Rugby players were well paid in comparison to the standard job with approx. 80,000 euro being the average Provincial Contract and 225,000 the average Internationals deal here. But the strength of the French clubs financial muscle is driving up the wages of players throughout Europe as the Irish, English and Welsh in particular try to stay

The last month has been hugely important in developing the Aviva as a Fortress for Irish rugby teams with England and Leicester having been sent packing in comprehensive fashion. This Leinster team is the real deal. They responded from a last minute loss away to Munster 7 days earlier with a performance full of passion, accuracy and commitment that left the Leicester team in no doubt that to get a win they would have to produce a display that was far better than they need to do on a weekly basis in the Aviva Premiership. We expected that Leicester would attempt to “Bully” Leinster and their selection affirmed that theory. Richard Cockerill went for Jordan Crane at Number 8 for his physicality over Thomas “The Tank” Waldrom who is a more creative player and loosehead prop Boris Stankovich ahead of Martin Castrogiovanni for his ability in the scrum. This tactic proved to be a mistake as since Leinster won the Heineken Cup in 2009 they have a mental steel which means that they wont be dominated physically by any team even when they meet a side that is more powerful and bigger.

At the post match press conference Leicester coach complained about the referee Nigel Owens performance and said that it was the difference of interpretation at the breakdown between the Magners and the Premiership that cost his side on the day. While they may have been harshly penalised on a couple of occasions it wasn’t the ref that cost them. They were taken apart in the Lineout where Leo Cullen, Nathan Hines and Kevin McLaughlin created havoc on George Chuters throw. Leo is a lineout “nerd” and having played for the Tigers for 2 seasons he understands the principles of how they set up and their calling systems. He had us very well prepared at Lineout time in Murrayfield in 2009 and we stole 5 of the first 6 lineouts, which laid the foundation for our win. Leicester would have expected to dominate at the scrum too but Cian Healy, Richard Strauss and Mike Ross refused to give an inch in this area and in fact possibly just edged it.

The biggest difference between the 2 teams was Leinsters ability to run at space and offload pre and post contact. Leicester’s game plan was based on running straight and hard mainly through the Tuilagi brothers. Leinster actually created 2 or three try scoring opportunities that they didn’t take which would have put the match out of reach by half time. Luke Fitzgerald dropped a couple of passes at unfortunate times and I feel for him at the moment as he is struggling for form and despite working his socks off its just not happening for him. He is a class player and one of the strongest players mentally around and he will bounce back but he must be under pressure to keep his place form Fergus McFadden for the semi final. The two best players on the pitch amongst many good performances were the official Sky Sports Man of the Match Richardt Strauss who showed great speed and his ability to tackle and contest the ball immediately gives Leinster an additional Back row forward around the pitch. The man who scored the winning try Isa Nacewa was brilliant yet again. He always seems to have time on the ball which they say is a sign of a class player. He has proved to be one of Leinster’s best ever foreign players and the great thing about him is that he no longer plays International Rugby and is therefore available for selection for Magners League matches during the November Internationals and the 6 Nations. Not only does he play every week but he is consistency personified and it is irrelevant to him whether he is playing with Leinsters best players or the inexperienced academy lads.

With Toulouse having beaten Biarittz after extra time in San Sebastian they are next up for Leinster in the Aviva in the Heineken Cup semi final on April 30^th. Toulouse are the most experienced side in Europe and they won the Heineken Cup last year having beaten Leinster in the semi final at their home ground. It wont be an easy match by any means but I feel that Leinster at home will have enough to get through to the final in late May at the Millenium where they will face either Northampton or Perpignan. Should Leinster make the Final in Cardiff it will probably be a case of who ever is left in Ireland that weekend turn off the lights as its probable that Munster will be playing on the Sunday of the same weekend in the Final of the Amlin Challenge Cup after their very exciting win away to Brive by 42-37. It was an incredible game of running attacking rugby from both teams however I would have to question the defensive performance of both teams particularly their kick chase which allowed soft counter attacking opportunities.

 

On Sunday morning hopes were high for a great day for Ulster sport with the Ulster rugby team set to face Northampton in their first time out of the group stages since they won the trophy in 1999 and Rory McIlroy was 4 shots clear in the Masters. Unfortunately the Ulster rugby team came up against Northampton who had learnt from their defeat away to Munster in the Quarter Final stage last season and deserved to win on the day. Rory McIIroy like Ulster found that experience is worth its weight in gold and like this Ulster team he will come back stronger next year and beyond.

Leinster having lost to Munster now need to pick up every point on offer to secure a top 4 finish in the Magners League. I fancy Leinster to beat Ulster in the RDS tomorrow night and Cardiff to get the better of Connacht in the Sportsground this evening. If you fancy a punt on the Guinness Premiership this weekend I think that Newcastle at home with a 10 point start should be a winner despite Newcastle’s poor recent form. Northampton could be on a high after getting into the Heineken Cup semi and a trip north might not be a high priority.

I didn’t blog last week as there can be some surprising results the week after the 6 Nations as each team employs different strategies in terms of how they re introduce their Internationals back to the fold. With the Heineken Cup back this weekend every fit player will be considered for duty.The Clash of last weekend’s rugby matches in Ireland, Britain and France was undoubtedly the Irish Provincial Derby between Munster and Leinster in Thomond Park on Saturday night. Thomand Park is an amazing place to play and with Leinster having returned 4000 of their 6000 allocation the atmosphere was pretty partisan. Leinster went into the match on a run of 5 straight wins over Munster and the way they started the match it looked like it was set to be 6 from 6. The need seemed to be greater for Munster with their players and management stressing all week how defeat was unacceptable for them or their supporters. There was no quarter asked for or given and anyone who thought that Leinster would have one eye on their Heineken Cup quarter final against Leicester at the Aviva this Saturday doesn’t understand how important the bragging rights for Irish provincial rugby means to these squads. Only two weeks ago 17 of the players on show were joined together to beat England and now they are knocking Lumps out of each other for fun.

Leinster led 20-9 at the break through a brilliant try for Shane Horgan who was winning his 200^th cap for Leinster. Shane Horgan is a huge influence in the Leinster dressing room on and off the pitch and his mantra that “you don’t have to be talented to work hard” is something that I preach to any team I am involved with. His try his 66^th for Leinster was from a back row move that would have been designed to attack a weakness in the Munster defensive system spotted by one of the coaches or players studying footage of Munster’s recent matches. Its one thing spotting the weakness but having the skill and accuracy to exploit it is a much harder thing to do and the players involved. It started with having a steady scrum that got a right angle, and then Heaslip, Boss and D’arcy who passed the ball and Sean O Brien who blocked James Coughlan created the gap for Isa Nacewa to burst through. When Isa reached the next line of defence he put a delicate grubber kick through that Shane Horgan picked up at full speed and dived over the line. It amazing how good Leinster were in the first 40 minutes considering how they hadn’t played together for months. They were ruthlessly efficient in all aspects of the first half and with Jonny Sexton kicking any penalties in range they looked home and hosed at the break.

The Coaches role at half time can often be overrated but Tony McGahan needed to make sure his message was heard and most importantly acted upon. There must have been a chance that despite being top of the League and into the quarter final of the Challenge Cup another embarrassing defeat to their Arch rivals could have cost him his job in the off season. The method Munster used to turn the match was by focusing on the breakdown in the 2^nd 40 minutes. Whenever I played against Munster that was the area of the game that was the hardest to win. They hit you hard and low and if you didn’t get the right numbers to every ruck you risk getting turned over. They were also so efficient at the breakdown that they were able to keep the ball for long periods often by picking and going around the fringes through their pack. In an effort to play a more open brand of rugby they seem to have neglected this part of their game slightly and what you saw in the 2^nd half was Munster returning to their traditional strengths and they strangled Leinster in this area. Leinster made a few handling errors in the 2^nd half on attack too, which added to Munsters momentum. Despite Munster owning the ball Leinster’s defence refused to be breached and it is now over 500 minutes since Munster have scored a try against the men in Blue. That stat won’t bother Munster too much as when you have a kicker like Ronan O Gara you don’t need to score tries every match.

O Gara kicked 8 from 9 penalties at goal and the match winner was a penalty from the touchline in the last minute of the match. The American World War 2 General Omar Bradley said “Bravery is the Capacity to perform properly even when scared half to death” and that is the level that top class goal kickers like O’Gara and Sexton have to operate. Every time they lace their boots to play they understand that it’s likely they will be responsible for whether their team wins or loses. O’Gara stuck to his process and nailed the kick which left no time for Leinster to try and recover.

Munster will now finish top seeds in the Magners and Leinster will probably finish 4^th which would mean they meet again in the semi final which would be a thrilling prospect for both sets of supporters and the Neutrals. This week Leinster need to react positively to the defeat and prepare for what will be a huge examination of their worth at the Aviva stadium against Leicester who are the form team in England at the moment. Leicester will have noticed how Munster beat Leinster and are sure to copy some of the tactics used. However Forewarned is forearmed and I expect Leinster to win but it might be only by 1 score. Munster have the talent and hunger to win in Brive in their Quarter Final and should be good enough to win the Challenge Cup outright.

The two best teams in Europe collide in the Heineken Cup Quarter finals this Saturday when the Leicester Tigers come to Dublin to play Leinster and we can be sure that this will be the battle of all battles. The winner of this match has a home semi final which is a huge advantage and with the final in Cardiff it will be hard for a French team to win it this year given their weakness playing outside France.

Leicester have a great record of winning trophies with 3 of the last 4 Premiership trophies finding their way back to Welford Road and more importantly they have a very proud record in Europe winning the Heineken Cup twice. This season they currently lead the Premiership and have scored 13 more tries than their nearest rivals. For a team that is built on brute force, power and physical intimidation they are playing an attacking brand of rugby with an offloading game that is similar to Leinster. They will try and win the scrum battle with the Italian Castrogiovanni and English test prop Dan Cole two world class operators but Leinster have been brilliant in this area this season and I don’t expect them to get any advantage here. They usually bring on Argentinian Loosehead Marcus Ayerza but he is suspended for fighting against Harlequins at the weekend which is a big blow to them. Their Half Backs Toby Flood and Ben Youngs are dangerous and will have learned from their horror show in the Grand Slam and the Tuilagi Brothers will be the latest brusiers to try and run over the D’arcy and O’Driscoll partnership.

The quarter final stage is often the hardest for the Irish Teams because they come two weeks after the conclusion of the Six Nations which doesn’t allow much elbow room in terns of rebuilding cohesion and team work.. The Leinster players will have taken stock of how they allowed the Munster forwards get over the gain line around the fringes in the 2^nd half against Munster and will be prepared and ready for this tactic when the Tigers employ it. We can look forward to seeing skin and hair flying with Leinster to just edge a tight game.

The only Handicap bet I fancy this weekend is the plus 9 point start that Ulster receive away to Northampton. Neither team has much Heineken Cup experience of the Knock out stages of late and I think that Ulster will be competitive as they are one of the form teams in the Magners league at the moment. I am going to go for a Perpignan (4/7), Leinster (4/9) and Toulouse (4/5) which works out at just over 3/1 and might pay for a few drinks this weekend.

It’s about as rare as hen’s teeth that I would back a loser not be gutted about it. But Saturday was one of those days. I reckoned that Ireland would struggle against England based on the form of both teams going into the final weekend of the Competition. But Form counts for nothing in these clashes and we won our 7^th clash of the last 8^th against England,which is an amazing statistic given the playing numbers of both countries.

The Irish Rugby team carried on from what our Cricketer’s started and our Horses, Trainers and Jockeys continued at Cheltenham with a resounding win over the 2011 6 Nation champions in a throbbing Avivia Stadium on Saturday evening. Over 20,000 English supporters travelled over in the hope that they would witness their team completing a Grand Slam. We had nothing to play for except Pride. But this team is built on Pride and they came out with the passion, intensity and accuracy that we had struggled to bring consistently in the previous 4 matches.

The score line of 24-8 doesn’t reflect how dominant we were in all areas of the game. England won the first kick off and that was about as far as they got. The key moment of the match for me was the first scrum when Ireland called a 8 man shove and shunted the Men in white backwards and won a penalty. While the Irish forwards were congratulating their front row, Johnny Sexton had other things on his mind and despite us being in our own half he sensed weakness and took a quick tap and a couple of phases later Brian O Driscoll was touching down in the left hand corner only for the referee to rule the try out for a forward pass that looked to be a marginal call.  If England had expected an easy evening now they knew they were in a game.

Complacency is a curse in sport and if your mindset isn’t right going into a match it’s nigh on impossible to recover during a match at the highest level. Looking at England’s performance it seems that they were starting too believe their own press and against the most experienced Irish Squad of all time that was always going to be dangerous. Not only are Ireland more experienced they are also packed with Leaders and proven winners at Heineken Cup, Magners League and Six Nations level. They used the disappointment and hurt from the Welsh defeat to circle the wagons and get the mindset just right this week. Irish teams always are at their best when they play with a little bit of madness and mayhem. There is a TV show I watch about a High School Football team in Texas called ‘Friday Night Lights’. Their Coaches final message before they go into battle is always “Clear Eyes, Full hearts, Cant Lose” and for me the Irish Team achieved this perfectly. Emotionally we were right on the money.

While no Irish player played poorly its important to note another milestone achieved by Brian O’Driscoll whose dart over the line gave him his 25^th Six Nations try, eclipsing a record set in the 1930’s by Scotland Ian Smith. He will refuse to dwell on any individual accolades but time after time he answers his critics not with words but with actions. Surely their can be no debate now that he is Ireland greatest ever Rugby player and one of our great sportsmen. He would have been frustrated by some of the mistakes that we were making but he didn’t panic and he and the coaches must take credit for how they prepared the team this week.

We have a stronger squad now than we did before the tournament. It was Sean O’Briens first 6 nations and if there was a Lions Tour in the morning he would be the Test match blindside forward. Mike Ross despite not being selected for the November Internationals is now the Key man in our team. Jake Howard the former Wallaby coach always said that the first position he picks in his team is the Tighthead prop and the 2^nd is the sub tighthead!. Without a Scrum you have nothing and Mike has brought the form he was showing with Leinster onto the International stage. Fergus McFadden, Eoin Reddan, Keith Earls and Andrew Trimble have all laid down markers for selection as starters come the World cup in October.

With profit in our pockets from the 6 Nations we can add to that over the coming months with the Magners League and the Heineken Cup reaching the knockout stages. I expect to have a few recommendations later this week for this weekends Magners Leagues fixtures and might have a nice winner in the Super League too!

Often in Sport you learn more about yourself and your team from a defeat than you do from a win. I hope that is the net result of our loss away to Wales last weekend. I feel that the close wins over Italy and Scotland covered up some of the obvious flaws in our game and we must eradicate them this weekend if we want to finish the season with a win. England have been going about their business in an impressive manner and will be the strongest team that we have faced this season so far.

Although we were on the receiving end of a horrendous call by the Touch judge Peter Allen against Wales we were the Masters of our own downfall through poor tactics and our inability to catch and kick as effectively as the Welsh. We started the game very well and took play through nine phases in Wales's 22 before Tommy Bowe created space for O'Driscoll to equal Ian Smith's championship record of 24 tries, and we finished it attacking in the same way. We had a chance to score a try in the last minute when slick hands from Sexton and Darcy gave us a clear 2 on 1 and Paddy Wallace will regret not releasing Keith Earls outside him for what looked like a certain try.Its what happened in the 70 minutes in between that gives cause for concern.

James Hook had been picked at outside-half for his running skills, but it was the length of his line kicking and that of Lee Byrnes that was the key difference in the teams. We have gone from a team that refused to kick the ball against Italy to only kicking as a last resort against France to putting boot to ball 43 times against Wales. We finally got our penalties conceded figure down to a respectable 8 and we won all our lineouts and the scrum wasn’t a factor with only 3 in the whole match yet we were limited in our attacking shape for most of the match. The team had obviously decided that it was better to kick than run against Wales but having scored so easily in the opening period and when it became obvious that we weren’t going to win that kicking battle we should have adapted quicker and started to keep the ball in hand more.

This team has brilliant strike runners out wide in Earls and Bowe and Brian O’Drisscoll is still a huge threat despite some pundits declaration otherwise. We need to get the ball in these guys hands as much as possible but particularly when they are attacking against the opposition front five forwards. There is a simple philosophy of getting your forwards running against backs and the backs against forwards and you have a good recipe for breaking the gain line consistently. Healy, O Brien and Wallace are very powerful ball carriers and the game plan must be tailored to suit expose their strength.

England are coming to Dublin assured of a Championship after Italy shocked France in Rome but they will be motivated by a Grand Slam. They will share a bonus of £500,000 between them if they can beat Ireland and Ireland will take confidence from the way Scotland exposed weaknesses in their defence.

Saturday is our last competitive fixture before the World Cup in October. Muhammed Ali said “Its not about counting the days but making the days count”. This week we need to use each days training and meetings to clarify exactly how we want to play and then go into Saturdays match with a unified approach. Man for man we can match England but its what happens collectively that will decide the result. Saturday will be a huge game for Martin Johnson and England but I feel that its even more important for Declan Kidney and Ireland.

Given how both teams have played so far I unfortunately have to tip the English to cover the minus 4 handicap at Even money with Betpack. Italy will still be celebrating like they won the World cup after their first ever win over France in Rome last weekend and I fear that they may be happy with their performances over the course of the tournament and may take the foot of the pedal against Scotland in Murrayfield. Scotland were dangerous at Twickenham and I fancy them to cover the 8 points at 10-11 with Betpack. In Paris the French Squad will be reeling from the Italian Job and the reaction of their Manager Marc Lievremont who called them Cowards at the post match press conference and will beat the Welsh by more than 9 points again at 10-11.

I am 6 from 6 so far on this Blog and although I expect this weekend matches to be tight I am confident we can keep up our good form.

For the latest rugby odds Click Here

Sign up today only using the code Bernard to get an exclusive €50 match on BetPack.com.

My old Schools Coach at Newbridge College, Paddy Butler, was a great motivator and instilled in his players the importance of seizing their opportunity. He loved the saying "If not now then when, and if not you then who" and it has been something that I have tried to pass on to the teams that I now coach. It is certainly something that is relevant to the Irish team this week as they prepare for a trip to Cardiff to play Wales who are 2 wins from 3 like us.

There has been a lot of talk in the press since the Scottish win of dissent in the Irish Camp. This has been created by some conflicting messages coming out of press conferences and interviews and also some reaction to a couple of the Players being abused on social media sites like Twitter and Facebook.

One ‘fan’ went on to Brian O’Driscoll’s Twitter and said that his time was up and thanks for the memories. Jamie Heaslip and Cian Healy, two of the more frequent tweeters in the squad, also came in for some stick.

Players are only human and they can take this criticism to heart, particularly young players. This week Keith Earls was quoted that he was affected by some of the criticism he received on the Lions tour of South Africa. He refused to read any of it anymore instead relying on a few trusted people for feedback and support. The use of Twitter and Facebook by the players is a great way of helping make rugby more popular but if you want to take the praise you need to be able to take the pain too.

Jamie Heaslip was reported to have criticized Declan Kidney for dropping Jonathon Sexton and Fergus McFadden but what the full transcript showed was he was actually praising the strength of depth in the squad and just advising the two dropped players to go to the management and find out what exactly they need to work on so they can fight their way back into the side.

The Press in Ireland have changed over the past few years and I suppose that is down to the increased popularity of the game but also their seems to be an influence from the UK press who traditionally have been more sensational. Players need to be very aware when giving Interviews as to how their comments are likely to be used. We only have to look at the Stephen Ireland example from last week to see the potential disaster.

This week the big “work on” for the team will be making sure that we are squeaky clean at the breakdown. When we won the Grand Slam two years ago we were innovators in the use of what is called the “Choke” tackle. This is were the tackler fights to hold up the attacking player and then clamp on the ball like a limpet on a rock. In the old rules this often won us a penalty with the attacking player not releasing. Worse case scenario we slowed their ruck ball down so much we had a very strong defensive line set. The new rules specify that the tackler now releases the Ball Carrier completely as soon as one knee hits the ground. We have been very slow to adapt to these rule changes so far and for the Italy and France game the Irish Management seemed to be sticking to their guns and blaming the referee’s for making bad calls. We were saying that the referees should have been using the Maul law rather than the ruck laws as their reference point.  I expect the Scotland game (13 penalties conceded) to have drawn a line in the sand under this tactic and we will have used the 2 week gap and the training sessions in camp to come up with a new way to contest the ruck and force turnovers or to slow the ball down.

In the Southern Hemisphere, teams are making a tackle and then clapping their hand to show the referee that they have released the ball carrier and then they are entitled to try and rip the ball. England just get two players and they drive over the tackled player which either forces a turnover or worse case scenario makes the attack put more players into the ruck to win the ball which limits their attacking options. The Irish Management is made up of some very bright coaches and it will be interesting so see what they come up with because this technique is likely to determine how successful we are over the next 12 months at least.

Wales are hoping that James Hook can have the similar effect that he had against Scotland when he also played outhalf as their attack looked pretty sterile against the Italians with him playing centre due to injury. Wales are one of the most predictable teams in play against in the Northern hemisphere as they attack all the way to the touchline with their front five then recycle through the backrow on the return and then use their back line. It should be meat and drink to this Irish team. However think back to how close the game was 2 years ago in Cardiff when we were flying and given the lack of confidence in our team at the moment I am going to let my Head rule my Heart and go for Wales to win @ 8/11. In the other matches I fancy Scotland plus 16 against England and the Italians plus 16 at home to France. Hopefully we can get 3 from 3 again this week. Good Luck. Bernard

For the latest rugby odds Click Here

Sign up today using the code Bernard to get an exclusive €5 free bet on BetPack.com.

A win is a win is a win. The Irish management and the players will be
wheeled out to the media this week to talk up Scotland and what an
achievement it was to win over there on Sunday. We also got our betting blog
off to a great start on here at Betpack with 3 out of 3 selections winning.
Let's hope we can continue that form over the next few weeks. While I have
huge admiration for this Irish teams work rate and determination we just
can't ignore some of the evidence on show. In my opinion Scotland have gone
backwards over the last few months. I had fancied them going into the
tournament on the back of a decent November series but they have failed to
score a try in Edinburgh since 2009 and against us their attack was as blunt
as a knife in a prison canteen. Their defence has become porous and they
have a habit of conceding tries in the first ten minutes. In fact Jaime
Heaslips try in the 6th minute was the 7th match from their last 9 that they
have conceded a try within 10 minutes. That's a recipe for disaster at this
level.

Eoin Reddan got a well deserved try from a Jamie Heaslip pick and go off a 5
metre scrum not long after and if the Scottish back row who have been
nicknamed the "Killer Bees" keep defending like this they will be christened
something less complimentary. Both our first 2 tries from set pieces near
the Scottish line. How we got there was through the tried and tested right
boot of Ronan O'Gara. Rog had a brilliant game. He was awarded Man of the
Match and scored Ireland 3rd try which came about after a really patient
build up and O'Gara handed off the Scottish Hooker Ross Ford to barge his
way over the line. O Gara was quoted afterwards about his feelings about
being dropped and regaining his place and he quipped "its not what you have
done, its what you are going to do that matters". He certainly played with
the air of a man who is determined to get as much as possible from what has
been a superb career already. It was noticeable how relaxed he was during
the match, he played with a smile on his face and it worked.

The big debate about the merits of selecting O'Gara over Sexton being would
Ireland revert to the kick for territory style that we have played
traditionally. With Sexton at Out half for the France and Italy game we
played a fast paced game with the ball being passed immediately to the
outside backs. Declan Kidney when asked last week whether we would persevere
with the "ball in hand" tactic under O'Gara said "if we clam up and Crawl
under a rock we'll actually go backwards. Risk nothing win nothing". On the
evidence of Sunday we did revert to type and it will be interesting to find
out if that was agreed beforehand. It seems that O'Gara using all his
experience and leadership qualities decided that he knew how to ensure we
won the match and took control. Having players who will take ownership on
the field is what all coaches strive for as they are the ones who will make
the team successful in high pressure games.

If the Management decided that we should abandon the game plan then I feel
that we have a problem. The reason that we changed to a more attacking brand
of rugby is that the laws now suit that better. Its far harder to force
turnovers in the modern game and hence if you kick you need to be prepared
to defend for long periods. To play a kicking game exclusively you need a
pack that can dominate all areas of the set piece and a back line that can
out muscle its opponents. We don't have those qualities. Our team rely on
our foot balling ability mostly derives from the players GAA background and
we need to out think and out worn our opponents to win. We will get away
with the kicking game against the Welsh, Scots and Italians, but against
France and England and the 3 Southern Hemisphere teams we will struggle.
There was always going to be a bedding in period while the players adapted
to the tactic and while I feel we may have got the balance wrong in the
first two matches I feel that we kicked too much against Scotland.

The reason that we need to kick so much at the moment is that we are a
better team without the ball. This is because we have a serious problem with
our discipline. The coaches were at pains last week to point out that we
don't have a problem and that we are just on a bad run with referees, but
Sunday was the 13th game in a row that we gave away more than 10 penalties
and our average over that period is 12.4 per match. The penalty count from
the Scottish game was 13 penalties and 1 free kick conceded to 4 penalties
won. The referee Nigel Owens is one of the worlds best and is very
favourable to Irish teams usually. He refereed the quarters, semi and final
in both Leinster and Munster's recent Heineken Cup wins. If he is penalising
us that much we have a problem. I feel that the only way to sort this is to
drop the serial offenders as you can be sure that it has been addressed at
team meetings but the players are playing lip service to it.

The positives from the game were the performances of O'Brien,  Reddan and O
Gara. The fact that Tommy Bowe got 80 minutes international rugby under his
belt again and the fact that all the bench got reasonable game time apart
from Paddy Wallace. For Declan Kidney, who he plays at Outhalf and the
tactics employed against Wales will be very interesting.

For the latest rugby odds Click Here

 

After the weekend off the Irish National team will have reported back into camp on Monday to prepare for the crunch match against Scotland in Murrayfield on Sunday. The France match will have been analysed to death and the players will have been told exactly where they performed poorly. Its ironic that we are back to play the Scots this week as it was our loss in Croke Park by a score of 20-23 that seemed to send us into a downward spiral of form and confidence that we have struggled to recover from. I rate Scotland as a team despite the shocking performance that they put in against Wales last week and if we don’t improve massively we will be beaten. Andy Robinson has taken the scalpel to his team and the side that Ireland face will show 7 changes from the Welsh defeat. 3 of those changes were enforced with Hugo Southwell, Joe Ansbro injured and tighthead prop Euan Murray ruled out because he refuses to play on a Sunday due to his religious beliefs. The way Murray has been playing recently you could justifiably ask the question why he bothers playing the rest of the week! I expect the changes to improve Scotland and we will be on the receiving end of a huge backlash.

If Ireland are to win we need to defend as we did against France but cut out the needless penalties that we conceded. Declan Kidney has been stressing for the past week that Ireland don't have a discipline problem and we don't, what we do have however is a Penalty problem. In last years 6 Nations, only Italy conceded more penalties than Ireland and they always are bottom of the table in terms of possession statistics. The Opta statistics also show us that in the last 12 test matches Ireland haven’t once finished a match with a penalty count of under 10. Every Professional team would use KPI's (Key Performance Indicators). These KPI's are figures agreed by the Coaches and players that if achieved generally result in winning the match. I know that the Irish team set a figure of less than ten as their KPI for penalties conceded. Not to achieve your target in 12 consecutive matches is incredibly sloppy and needs to be addressed this week or else Declan Kidney need to make an example of the offenders regardless of their standing in the team.

Another week together should improve the cohesiveness amongst the players and I would like to see a better mix of kicking and passing. Johnny Sexton only kicked the ball once from hand in his 65 minutes last week and away from home we will need to turn the Scottish defense around now and again to keep them honest. To win the match Ireland need to cut out the dropped passes and individual errors that have plagued us in the first two games but also the Irish Management need to start using the bench as a way to improve the team and not just give some of the subs a token cap near the end. Leo Cullen the form lock going into the 6 Nations was given 6 seconds against France and while Kidney had tried to make a few minutes earlier but there was no stoppage in play , 5 minutes isn’t long enough make an impact in my opinion. Other countries empty the bench with 20 minutes to go and use these players freshness to keep the workrate up in the closing stages.

Tommy Bowe comes back into the team gives us a huge lift in terms of another attacking option but in particular gives us a viable cross field kick option close to the opposition line. Ronan O’Gara starts having performed brilliantly from the bench against Italy and France and it will be interesting to see if he continues with the “ball in hand” style that Ireland have been attempting or if he kicks to the corners more. It ironic that as soon as Eoin Reddan gets his chance to play due to Tomas O Leary’s back injury Johnny Sexton drops down to the bench but that’s how it happens sometimes. I would have loved to see Sexton getting the backline moving with the quicker service that Reddan will provide but I am sure Sexton will be used from the bench like Ronan O Gara was.

There is still a Triple Crown to fight for but what’s more important for the overall confidence of this team is an away win so that the players can really believe in our new game plan and continue our development towards the Rugby World Cup in October. Its head ruling heart here but I feel that Scotland are good value to cover the Plus 5 handicap with Betpack and maybe be worth a punt on the match betting at 15/8

The tie of the round this weekend is undoubtedly England against France in Twickenham. France Coach Marc Lievremont must have went to the same PR school as Warren Gatland as he gave the English hacks plenty of copy this week when he attacked England for being ‘arrogant‘ and ‘insular’. Generally these things are best left unsaid or else wait till after you have beaten them to bring it up. Declan Kidney would never fall into this trap. France have without doubt the ability to beat England who have impressed in their opening two wins. Man for man I would pick the French player over the English in every position but the maddening thing about the French is there inconsistency, particularly away from home. France have brought Chabal back into the team which I feel weakens them. Chabal offers more value as a Marketing tool than as a player nowadays and in my opinion should be nowhere near a 30 man French squad. I am going to go for England on the Match Betting here at 4-9.

Wales were very impressive against Scotland and James Hook playing at outhalf was a big factor in that. However due to an injury crisis in the centres Warren Gatland has been force to move Hook in there and bring back Stephen Jones at pivot. This will take a lot of the pace from the Welsh backline and we say in the Ireland Italy match that this Italian team can defend when the game is in Rome. They will be hurting from the thrashing that they received in Twickenham and I expect a backlash this week. I fancy Wales to win the match but Italy to cover the handicap with Betpack of plus 10.

I look forward to reviewing these matches next week and hopefully we will have made some money with my selections.