Winston Churchill said “ Its much better to have a panic feeling beforehand, and then be calm when things happen than to be extremely calm beforehand and to get into a panic when things happen”. The ability to remain calm in the heat of battle is something which Leinster, Munster, Toulouse and Leicester have proven more than any other teams over the years in the knockout stages of the Heineken Cup. With the Leicester Tigers having fallen to Leinster in the quarter finals and Munster preparing for a semi final clash with Harlequins in the Amlin Challenge Cup Toulouse come to the Aviva with the winner sure to be hot favourites for the Final in Cardiff in late May.
Toulouse has won 17 Domestic Championships and 4 Heineken Cups. They are the reigning Heineken Cup champions having disposed of Leinster in the semi finals last year on route to the title. I was part of the Leinster squad that day and I remember the dressing room at half time and the fatigue on every players face such was the physicality that we had faced over the first 40 minutes. We only lost 26-16 in the end but it felt like a hammering such was their domination.
Can Leinster win just 12 months later? I am convinced that we can and here are the reasons. 1) This time Leinster are at home and the Aviva will be packed in Blue instead of Red. 2) Last season Leinster were defending the Crown rather than chasing it and chasing it has always been easier with only Leicester having won it back to back. 3) Leinsters form this season has been much better having finished top of an incredibly tough pool and disposing of Leicester already. 4) Johnny Sexton is fit to play this time whereas last year he was injured. Also Leinster have apart from Rob Kearney a clean bill of health whereas Toulouse have some injuries in key positions. 5) Last season Toulouse destroyed Leinster at the scrum, which probably led to the decision to employ Greg Feek as a Scrum coach. Since his appointment and the emergence of Mike Ross as the outstanding scrummager in Europe this season I don’t see Toulouse getting the upper hand in this area and that will be a physiological advantage to Leinster.
The key players will be Sean O’ Brien and Isa Nacewa who were both shortlisted for Irish Rugby players of the year this week and Brian O’ Driscoll who always seems to produce on the biggest of occasions. Joe Schmidt in his first year as head coach will know Toulouse more than any Magners team having spent 4 seasons as assistant coach at Clermont. One of the most impressive things about his first season has been his ability to spot weaknesses in the oppositions defence and then design an attack that exploits it. In games of this Magnitude there is usually only one score in it at the end and the difference is often who can score a try. Having watched all of Leinsters matches this season and most of Toulouse I feel that Leinsters attacking shape is more consistent and they will be able to break the French down.
Munster welcome Harlequins to Limerick Saturday in the Amlin quarter finals sitting 14 points clear at the top of the Magners League table and following another impressive away win over the Ospreys on Saturday night with Ronan O Gara kicking a 80th minute penalty to seal the victory. The way they have refocused after their exit in the group stage of the Heineken has been very impressive and they now stand only 4 games away from what would be an impressive double. Conor O’Shea who played 35 times for Ireland manages harlequins. He has been Director of Rugby at London Irish and also the National Director of the English Institute of Sport and is widely tipped to be in charge of Irish rugby one day.
Following their win over Leeds on Sunday Harlequins are now up to 7th in the Premiership table and are chasing an automatic Heineken Cup spot. Winning the Amlin Cup would also get them into the Heineken but I would expect that Munster will have too much experience for them on the day. They are an exiting team to watch however and lead the Premiership stats in linebreaks, ball carries and off loads. They are also the 2nd best in tries conceded so they should be doing better but their discipline isn’t as good as it needs to be and with Ronan O Gara’s current form that will hurt them. They are a youngish team and they will be better next year and probably at their peak two years from now.
Munster have blooded lots of young players over the past couple of months and it will be interesting to see how many keep their place for this weekend. Tomas O’ Leary is due back from injury and Conor Murray has been keeping Peter Stringer on the bench. Who gets the nod at Scrumhalf will certainly be of great interest to Declan Kidney and the Irish management with one eye on the World Cup in September.
Betting wise this week I am sticking with the Heineken Cup semi finals and am recommending a double on the match betting on Leinster at 1-2 and Northampton at 4-7 which works out at nearly 6-4. I am pretty confident that home advantage will see the Saints through.
