And then there were two. We are in the last week of the Rugby World Cup and the pre tournament favourites are very short odds to win their first World Cup since 1987. In their way stands France who on form don’t deserve to be any where near a final but they are a team who have caused the Kiwis heartache at two previous tournaments and that will help focus the All Blacks minds this week as I am sure the hype and expectation will be massive. They deserve to win it in my opinion as they have been the standard bearers of World Rugby for most of the last 20 years and one World Cup is a very poor return for that domination.
The standard of the All Blacks 20-6 win over Australia on Sunday morning was far higher than what we witnessed on Saturday morning when the Welsh team who had beaten Ireland so impressively were unlucky losers to the French. In my opinion and this goes against the Majority I know, Sam Warburton the Welsh captain should have been given a Yellow Card rather than the Red that Alain Rolland issued. Rolland is one of the best referees in the game and he refereed the final at the last world cup so is obviously highly though of by the head honchos at the IRB too. The IRB want to stamp out the “Spear Tackle” out of the game and they have instructed referees to come down heavy on this act. However I have taken note of at least 4 tackles that I would deem to be more dangerous during this tournament that has only resulted in a Yellow Card. We need greater consistency. I would argue that because Red Cards are so rare in rugby, this was only the 16th ever in the Tournament, that the referee should use the video ref for any decision that the ref may feel warrants a red card just as they do for tries about which there is a doubt. Making a decision at the spur of the moment without the benefit of another experts opinion can ruin a match. This tackle was very different than the spear tackle that Brian O Driscoll suffered on the Lions tour to New Zealand in 2005 where he was picked up at a Ruck and rammed into the ground head first by two players. He didn’t have the ball at the time and the action was far more dangerous than what Warburton did. I would argue that as a ball carrier a certain amount of responsibility lies with you to ensure that you fall correctly. Its very rare in training or a match to be able to get both legs of a ball carrier and it’s a very fine line between a perfect tackle and what was deemed a “spear’ in that Match. The Tackled player Clerc is a much smaller man than Warburton and that is why he was easy to pick up.
If Warburton had only received a yellow card then I have no doubt that they would have won as they had to play 60 minutes with only 14 men and they still were only beaten by 1 point. They scored the only try of the match through scrum half Mike Phillips and instead of showboating he could easily have tried to make it under the posts which would have guaranteed the conversion which Stephen Jones missed. It’s a sign of how much this talented French team have slipped back that confronted with only 14 men they decided to kick the leather off the ball and never went for the jugular. It defies best practice that with a dysfunctional relationship between the Head Coach and the players they are still in the tournament but I feel that they will be exposed on Saturday.
The All Blacks are too efficient at the basics to allow the French cause them any trouble and I fear that if New Zealand can get a lead earlier then it could be a whitewash which wouldn’t be good for the game with a huge audience set to be watching around the World.
With Weepu at scrum half having lost 7 kilos during the tournament in much better shape and kicking for goal well this is allowing 3rd string Out Half ArronCruden settle in and pull the strings in attack. For a small man his defence is very good as he understands his physical limitations and chops the opposition down at the ankles.
While the odds are stacked heavily against the French, they have defied the odds many times before and should not be underestimated completely. France are the first team to make the final despite losing two games and, although they benefited from a controversial red card, have created history nonetheless. They have had a couple of wins from their past nine visits to Eden Park which is better than anyone else in world rugby at this venue. In their last visit to New Zealand, France also inflicted the last loss the All Blacks had on home soil, in Wellington during 2009
So it all comes down to the All Blacks and France. I'm not too sure many would have tipped that as the World Cup final – I certainly didn't.
While the odds are stacked heavily against the French, they have defied the odds and should not be underestimated. France are the first team to make the final despite losing two games and, although they benefited from a controversial red card, have created history nonetheless.
We shouldn't be too quick to write off the French. It is particularly worthy to note that they have had a couple of wins from their past nine visits to Eden Park – probably better than anyone else in world rugby at this venue. In their last visit to New Zealand, France also inflicted the last loss the All Blacks had on home soil, in Wellington during 2009.
France were no match for the Kiwis in their earlier pool match at this tournament receiving a 37-17 hammering.
Since then, France have lost to Tonga and have experienced numerous internal issues within the management and the squad apparently. The reality is, though, the French rugby culture is driven by emotion, conflictand they wear their hearts on their sleeves. You never know where they are on the rollercoaster. Their cycle is predictable in its lack of predictability. Marc Liveremont has done himself no favours again this week with his media outburst and I wouldn’t be surprised if we never see him coaching professionally again.
It would be the biggest shock in World Cup history were they to win and it would defy all the believes about what sort of unity and preparation that you need to win a Tournament of this nature. I really believe that New Zealand will win but I hope that France do themselves Proud on the night.
In the 3rd and 4th place play off match I feel that Wales will over turn a Wallaby team that have suffered physical hammerings over the last two weeks and this will tell when the Welsh lift the pace of the game as they are bound to do.
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